It ain't over 'til it's over

Yesterdays Super Bowl provided further evidence of two things:

1. We can't predict the future

2. We believe we can.

At half-time, The Wall Street Journal predicted the likelihood of a Falcon's win to be 91.6%

They based the likelihood of future outcomes on what happened in the past. In this case, 50,000 plays I think.

They got it wrong.

We're no better in business. We throw our X,Y variables into the Monte Carlo software and believe what comes out.

Fortune cookies are safer. At least we know they are nonsense.

Scenario planning is useful for examining the impact of outcomes and how you might respond.

You can't predict the future; you can only shape it—through involvement.